{"id":10464,"date":"2026-05-12T15:24:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emagazin.plus\/?p=10464"},"modified":"2026-05-12T15:30:47","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:30:47","slug":"interview-david-havrlant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emagazin.plus\/cz\/interview-david-havrlant\/","title":{"rendered":"Za n\u011bkolik let budou N\u011bmci pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b chodit za prac\u00ed do \u010ceska"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Interview s Davidem Havrlantem, hlavn\u00edm ekonomem ING Bank v \u010cR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropsk\u00e1 ekonomika je pod st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm tlakem. Jedna krize st\u0159\u00edd\u00e1 druhou a p\u0159er\u016fst\u00e1 v krize energetick\u00e9. N\u011bmecko, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 ekonomika, stagnuje. Co bude d\u00e1l? Kter\u00e9 zem\u011b EU maj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance na r\u016fst? A existuje skute\u010dn\u011b \u201estar\u00e1\u201c a \u201enov\u00e1\u201c Evropa?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Havrlant, hlavn\u00ed ekonom ING Bank v \u010cesku, vid\u00ed zcela jasn\u011b p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost na stran\u011b v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f EU a N\u011bmecku vystavuje velmi \u0161patn\u00e9 vysv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed. N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 p\u0159itom r\u00e1d a velmi dob\u0159e ho zn\u00e1. V Praze slo\u017eil vedle \u010desk\u00e9 tak\u00e9 n\u011bmeckou maturitu a v N\u011bmecku \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b studoval.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Havrlant m\u00e1 za sebou kari\u00e9ru ve firm\u00e1ch Accenture, J&T a Moody\u2019s, v \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bance i Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bance, v Evropsk\u00e9 komisi, ale tak\u00e9 v King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center v Rij\u00e1du, a tak je zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm partnerem pro \u201ekrizov\u00fd\u201c rozhovor.*<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Rozhovor prob\u011bhl 20. b\u0159ezna.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sv\u011btov\u00e1 konjunktura trp\u00ed, Evropa trp\u00ed, N\u011bmecko trp\u00ed. Probl\u00e9my extr\u00e9mn\u011b vyost\u0159ila v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Jak tuto situaci vid\u00edte vy?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy maj\u00ed dramatick\u00e9 dopady p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na Asii, ale tak\u00e9 na Evropu. A pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f vid\u00edme, \u017ee Evropa \u2013 zejm\u00e9na N\u011bmecko \u2013 ud\u011blala v posledn\u00edch 15 letech v energetick\u00e9 strategii n\u011bkolik chyb. I spolkov\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Merz ned\u00e1vno zcela jasn\u011b \u0159ekl, \u017ee odchod od j\u00e1dra byl v\u00e1\u017enou strategickou chybou. Pokud se sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize pot\u00e1hne \u0159adu m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a ceny ropy z\u016fstanou do prosince nad 100 dolary za barel, pak se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu krize objev\u00ed neline\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj s v\u00fdrazn\u00fdmi dopady na celou ekonomiku.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Hovo\u0159il jste o rozd\u00edln\u00fdch strategi\u00edch: N\u011bmecko s\u00e1z\u00ed na obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje, \u010cesko naopak na dal\u0161\u00ed rozvoj jadern\u00e9 energetiky. To ale p\u0159ece s cenov\u00fdm \u0161okem u energi\u00ed souvis\u00ed jen nep\u0159\u00edmo, ropa je v pr\u016fmyslu pot\u0159eba v mnoha r\u016fzn\u00fdch oblastech.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ano, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me tak\u00e9 \u0161ok u cen plynu. A pr\u00e1v\u011b na tuto kartu N\u011bmecko vsadilo. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00fdroba je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry jen transformac\u00ed energie. A Evropa v posledn\u00edch 15 letech \u2013 \u0159e\u010deno polemicky \u2013 vych\u00e1zela z p\u0159edstavy, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt r\u016fst bez energie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nejde v\u0161ak jen o energii jako takovou, ale nap\u0159\u00edklad tak\u00e9 o hnojiva, kter\u00e1 se ve velk\u00e9m vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, proto\u017ee jejich produkce je velmi energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1. Pokud bude krize pokra\u010dovat, za\u017eijeme je\u0161t\u011b siln\u00e9 \u0161oky u cen potravin. Jedno se nabaluje na druh\u00e9. Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu sni\u017euje ka\u017ed\u00e9 10% zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen ropy r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky o 0,2 procentn\u00edho bodu. A u\u017e p\u0159i r\u016fstu o 30 nebo 40 % vstupuj\u00ed do hry neline\u00e1rn\u00ed krizov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakce a dominov\u00e9 efekty s mnohem hor\u0161\u00edmi d\u016fsledky pro na\u0161e ekonomiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201ePom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b chyb v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 politice v posledn\u00edch 15 letech.\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Zast\u00e1nci energetick\u00e9 transformace Energiewende te\u010f \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee N\u011bmecko m\u011blo obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje rozv\u00edjet je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve a masivn\u011bji, a poukazuj\u00ed na \u0160pan\u011blsko. Tam je elekt\u0159ina i nyn\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. A v \u010cesku, kde jsou ceny energi\u00ed tak\u00e9 nad pr\u016fm\u011brem EU, pom\u016f\u017ee pl\u00e1novan\u00fd rozvoj jadern\u00e9 energetiky a\u017e zhruba za 15 let.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0160pan\u011blsko a N\u011bmecko nejsou v energetick\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch srovnateln\u00e9. \u0160pan\u011blsko m\u00e1 zaprv\u00e9 hodn\u011b slunce a zadruh\u00e9 nen\u00ed tak siln\u011b industrializovan\u00e9 jako N\u011bmecko, kde m\u00e1 pr\u016fmysl podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu energie. Siln\u011b pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 zem\u011b, jako jsou \u010cesko a N\u011bmecko, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed stabiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsun energie. Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee by je\u0161t\u011b masivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rozvoj obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f probl\u00e9m v N\u011bmecku vy\u0159e\u0161il. Ale i sami N\u011bmci si pomalu uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee v posledn\u00edch 15 letech ud\u011blali pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b chyb v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 politice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou podle v\u00e1s t\u0159i nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed chyby v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politice, kter\u00e9 N\u011bmecko v posledn\u00edch letech ud\u011blalo?<\/strong>
Jsou to chyby, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobily dne\u0161n\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky. Zaprv\u00e9 je to energetick\u00e1 strategie, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti nefungovala a pot\u0159ebuje n\u00e1vrat k realit\u011b. Zadruh\u00e9 je to p\u0159eregulovanost. V N\u011bmecku, ale i v Evrop\u011b obecn\u011b, je v\u0161echno regulov\u00e1no tak siln\u011b, \u017ee podm\u00ednky pro podnik\u00e1n\u00ed a konkurenceschopnost u\u017e nejsou dobr\u00e9. Mnoho pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch podnik\u016f proto odch\u00e1z\u00ed do zahrani\u010d\u00ed, do Asie nebo do USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A zat\u0159et\u00ed je chybou \u0161t\u011bdr\u00e1 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed politika. Lid\u00e9 maj\u00ed velmi n\u00edzkou motivaci zapojit se do pracovn\u00edho procesu. To se ukazuje i ve v\u011bci migrace. \u010cesko m\u00e1 v p\u0159epo\u010dtu na obyvatele nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl uprchl\u00edk\u016f z Ukrajiny a v\u011bt\u0161ina z nich se velmi rychle integrovala do pracovn\u00edho trhu. V N\u011bmecku je tato m\u00edra zam\u011bstnanosti mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. N\u011bmecko je zral\u00e9 na rozs\u00e1hlou reformu pracovn\u00edho trhu a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u00e1vek.
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Podle Institutu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky IW ale zahrani\u010dn\u00ed firmy v roce 2025 zdvojn\u00e1sobily investice do sv\u00fdch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch provoz\u016f na 96 miliard eur, mimo jin\u00e9 d\u00edky stabiln\u00edm r\u00e1mcov\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m a vysok\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed jistot\u011b. N\u011bmeck\u00fd export navzdory glob\u00e1ln\u00edm ot\u0159es\u016fm vzrostl o 1 %. A v roce 2025 vzniklo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 3 600 nov\u00fdch startup\u016f, o 29 % v\u00edce ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce a zhruba \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u00edce v p\u0159epo\u010dtu na obyvatele ne\u017e v \u010cesku. To jsou p\u0159ece pozitivn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly\u2026<\/strong>

Ano, ot\u00e1zkou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je, jak dlouho bude trvat, ne\u017e startupy skute\u010dn\u011b za\u010dnou p\u0159isp\u00edvat k r\u016fstu. Pod\u00edvejme se na d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd ukazatel \u2013 hrub\u00e9 fixn\u00ed investice za celou ekonomiku: tam je N\u011bmecko p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na \u00farovni roku 2014. Od roku 2019 vid\u00edme stagnaci a sestupn\u00fd trend. \u00dapln\u011b jin\u00e1 situace je v USA, kde tyto investice i po covidu neust\u00e1le rostly. I \u010cesko je na tom l\u00e9pe. N\u011bmecko u\u017e dlouho trp\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edm dluhem. A dne\u0161n\u00ed investice zkr\u00e1tka znamenaj\u00ed z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201eN\u011bmeck\u00fd pr\u016fmysl vyr\u00e1b\u00ed na \u00farovni roku 2010.\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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N\u011bmecko je u\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed motorem \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. Jak to v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci bude d\u00e1l s na\u0161imi bilater\u00e1ln\u00edmi hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi vztahy?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0158eknu to trochu provokativn\u011b: Za n\u011bkolik let pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b N\u011bmci budou chodit za prac\u00ed do \u010ceska a ne naopak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opravdu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ano. Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru m\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika m\u00e9n\u011b struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f ne\u017e n\u011bmeck\u00e1. Je to vid\u011bt na mnoha ukazatel\u00edch, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b. V letech 2014-2018\/2019 byla v obou zem\u00edch na r\u016fstov\u00e9 trajektorii. Od t\u00e9 doby ale v N\u011bmecku vid\u00edme dlouh\u00fd a zesiluj\u00edc\u00ed sestupn\u00fd trend. N\u011bmeck\u00fd pr\u016fmysl vyr\u00e1b\u00ed v z\u00e1sad\u011b na \u00farovni roku 2010. To je alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed a poci\u0165uj\u00ed to i n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti. V \u010cesku naproti tomu pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba v tomto obdob\u00ed alespo\u0148 stagnovala, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se op\u011bt vrac\u00ed k r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n\n\n

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A spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed v \u010cesku vedla k r\u016fstu HDP o 2,5 %\u2026<\/strong>
P\u0159esn\u011b tak. A kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na \u010desk\u00e9 firmy, vid\u00edme, \u017ee se situaci v posledn\u00edch dvou letech p\u0159izp\u016fsobily. Mnoho na\u0161ich klient\u016f v ING si kv\u016fli p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 situaci v N\u011bmecku hledalo nov\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky a odbytov\u00e9 trhy v Americe, na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nebo v Asii. V posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech letech pozorujeme, \u017ee \u010desk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl se odpout\u00e1v\u00e1 od n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho. A tento proces s\u00edl\u00ed.
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\u201eLevn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 automobily toti\u017e v Polsku ji\u017e sni\u017euj\u00ed inflaci..\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ob\u011b ekonomiky ale maj\u00ed podobnou strukturu, jsou to pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 a exportn\u011b orientovan\u00e9 zem\u011b. A energie jsou i v \u010cesku dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pr\u016fm\u011br EU. V \u010dem je tedy hlavn\u00ed rozd\u00edl?<\/strong>

Rozd\u00edl se net\u00fdk\u00e1 jen \u010ceska a N\u011bmecka. Obecn\u011b vid\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00fdchodn\u00ed zem\u011b EU jednaj\u00ed politicky mnohem pragmati\u010dt\u011bji ne\u017e N\u011bmecko, Francie nebo jin\u00e9 tradi\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je to vid\u011bt u cen energi\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je rozhodnuta j\u00edt proti syst\u00e9mu ETS, tedy proti emisn\u00edm povolenk\u00e1m v jejich dosavadn\u00ed i pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 podob\u011b ETS2. N\u011bco takov\u00e9ho by v N\u011bmecku bylo zat\u00edm jen t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem pragmatismu je automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd je syst\u00e9mov\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fd v N\u011bmecku, ale i v \u010cesku. Volkswagen v podstat\u011b v\u0161em uk\u00e1zal, jak by se to d\u011blat nem\u011blo. Jeho dce\u0159in\u00e1 firma \u0160koda naproti tomu zcela v\u011bdom\u011b pokra\u010dovala tak\u00e9 ve v\u00fdvoji a v\u00fdrob\u011b model\u016f se spalovac\u00edmi motory, prod\u00e1v\u00e1 je v Evrop\u011b a hodn\u011b je vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad do Indie. Nebylo spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 tak lehkov\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159enechat \u0161pi\u010dkovou evropskou technologii \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010cesko bylo a st\u00e1le je jednou ze zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 elektromobilitu v\u017edy brzdily. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to technologii ale nyn\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed velk\u00e1 konkurence z \u010c\u00edny.<\/strong>
V t\u00e9to zdr\u017eenlivosti v\u016f\u010di elektromobilit\u011b se znovu ukazuje onen pragmatick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, o n\u011bm\u017e jsme u\u017e mluvili. Nyn\u00ed vid\u00edme v Polsku, \u017ee se tam prosazuje konkurence z \u010c\u00edny, co\u017e u\u017e m\u00e1 dokonce makroekonomick\u00e9 dopady. Levn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 automobily toti\u017e v Polsku ji\u017e sni\u017euj\u00ed inflaci. \u010ce\u0161i i N\u011bmci jsou siln\u011b nav\u00e1z\u00e1ni na sv\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 zna\u010dky a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 zde proto zat\u00edm nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed na ur\u010dit\u00e9 hranice. Ale pokud budou m\u00edt dom\u00e1cnosti hloub\u011bji do kapsy, t\u0159eba i kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm cen\u00e1m energi\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee se st\u00e1t, \u017ee se mnoz\u00ed rozhodnou pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 auta.
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\u201eJe pot\u0159eba d\u00e1vat pozor na to, aby nevznikla dota\u010dn\u00ed ekonomika.\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nem\u011blo se tedy p\u0159ece jen d\u0159\u00edve a masivn\u011bji vsadit na elektromobilitu, aby Evropa byla v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b konkurenceschopn\u00e1, m\u00edsto aby se d\u00e1l dr\u017eela spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Podporovat dobrou my\u0161lenku je v po\u0159\u00e1dku, ale p\u0159itom je pot\u0159eba d\u00e1vat pozor na to, aby nevznikla \u201edota\u010dn\u00ed ekonomika\u201c. V takov\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu je toti\u017e t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 m\u00edt norm\u00e1ln\u00ed byznys model, k n\u011bmu\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed i to, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitel m\u00e1 mo\u017enost volby. Jsem pro elektromobilitu, i pro ur\u010ditou m\u00edru podpory. Ale pokud o t\u011bchto technologi\u00edch rozhoduje politika a nerespektuje se struktura ekonomiky ani p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitele, dostaneme se do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Podle n\u011bmeck\u00fdch novin Handelsblatt se pr\u00e9miov\u00ed v\u00fdrobci v automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu st\u011bhuj\u00ed z N\u011bmecka do st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy. Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee budoucnost r\u016fstu le\u017e\u00ed i podle v\u00e1s sp\u00ed\u0161e ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b ne\u017e ve star\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech EU?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokud z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty n\u011bco nezm\u011bn\u00ed na sv\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu, tak to tak bude. Ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b vid\u00edm mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed chu\u0165 r\u016fst a b\u00fdt \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropa na mnoho ot\u00e1zek reaguje velmi ideologicky, nap\u0159\u00edklad u dekarbonizace. V\u00fdchodn\u00ed zem\u011b se naproti tomu dok\u00e1\u017eou soust\u0159edit na d\u016fle\u017eitou ot\u00e1zku: Jak si udr\u017eet solidn\u00ed r\u016fst?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201eEvropa se jednodu\u0161e vyreguluje z r\u016fstu.\u201c<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ale kdy\u017e budu polemizovat: Jak \u010cesku pom\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst ekonomiky, kdy\u017e planeta zkolabuje?<\/strong>
Kdy\u017e N\u011bmecko nebude r\u016fst a deindustrializuje se \u2013 co\u017e se u\u017e d\u011bje \u2013 zachr\u00e1n\u00ed to klima? M\u016f\u017eeme n\u011bco d\u011blat v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, kdy v p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch a klidn\u00fdch \u010dasech v\u0161ichni hraj\u00ed podle pravidel. Tyto \u010dasy jsou ale pry\u010d. A tak tomu bude i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed dek\u00e1d\u011b. Na to se mus\u00edme ment\u00e1ln\u011b nastavit a \u0159e\u0161it jin\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00edna otev\u00edr\u00e1 jednu uhelnou elektr\u00e1rnu za druhou a s v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 % produkuje nejv\u00edce CO\u2082 na sv\u011bt\u011b. Evropa m\u00e1 pod\u00edl zhruba 8 %. A aby t\u011bchto 8 % odstranila, jednodu\u0161e se vyreguluje z r\u016fstu. Mus\u00edme se te\u010f zcela v\u011bcn\u011b zeptat: Co ztr\u00e1c\u00edme a co m\u016f\u017eeme z\u00edskat? V t\u011bchto trade-offech ale Evropa nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dobr\u00e1. Dosud toti\u017e byla bohat\u00e1. Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to krizi najednou m\u00e1me na stole nov\u00e9 a velk\u00e9 \u00fakoly v oblasti obrany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159esn\u011b tak, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b \u201epragmatick\u00e9\u201c \u010cesko u toho nechce b\u00fdt a ignoruje rozhodnut\u00ed NATO vyd\u00e1vat na obranu 5 % HDP.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee se tato pozice v \u010cesku je\u0161t\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed. \u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s doba alianc\u00ed. A ka\u017ed\u00fd st\u00e1t v Evrop\u011b i Evropa jako celek si bude muset polo\u017eit ot\u00e1zku, co znamen\u00e1 b\u00fdt spojencem. Co m\u016f\u017ee nab\u00eddnout? Mnoz\u00ed si tak\u00e9 pomalu uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fddaje na arm\u00e1du nejsou jen pen\u00edze vyhozen\u00e9 z okna, ale tak\u00e9 investice do aplikovan\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu a v\u00fdvoje. Je to vid\u011bt na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky z\u00edskala mnoh\u00e9 know-how a vyv\u00edj\u00ed tak\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed technologie. Ukrajina m\u00e1 dnes co nab\u00eddnout.


<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Podniky pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed jistotu p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed, spolehlivost a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed st\u00e1t. To ale ve st\u00e1tech Visegr\u00e1du u\u017e nen\u00ed samoz\u0159ejmost. Jak to zapad\u00e1 do pozitivn\u00edch vyhl\u00eddek ohledn\u011b r\u016fstu?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, je to problematick\u00e1 situace a m\u016f\u017eeme ji vy\u010d\u00edst i z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f o r\u016fstu. Slovensko bude m\u00edt r\u016fst v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod 1 % a Ma\u010farsko m\u00e1 tak jako tak velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my. Ale p\u0159esto jsou to demokracie a maj\u00ed demokraticky zvolen\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Zm\u011bny mohou p\u0159ij\u00edt, pokud bude ekonomika stagnovat a projev\u00ed se to na pracovn\u00edm trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U\u017e jste mluvil o tom, \u017ee Evropa mus\u00ed b\u00fdt agiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a akceschopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. N\u011bmeck\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed a vicekancl\u00e9\u0159 Lars Klingbeil p\u0159i\u0161el za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku znovu s my\u0161lenkou dvourychlostn\u00ed Evropy. Do prvn\u00ed skupiny by m\u011bly pat\u0159it v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b N\u011bmecko, Francie, It\u00e1lie a Polsko. Jak tento n\u00e1vrh hodnot\u00edte?<\/strong>
P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm je to klub tradi\u010dn\u00edch zem\u00ed EU. S v\u00fdjimkou Polska, kter\u00e9 by s r\u016fstem p\u0159es 3 % HDP bylo v t\u00e9to skupin\u011b nejsiln\u011bji rostouc\u00ed zem\u00ed. Pt\u00e1m se, pro\u010d by to vlastn\u011b Polsko m\u011blo d\u011blat? Velk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jako N\u011bmecko, Francie a It\u00e1lie toti\u017e bu\u010f stagnuj\u00ed, nebo maj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alespo\u0148 pokud jde o dynamiku a r\u016fst, vid\u00edm lep\u0161\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky do budoucna v regionu Polska, \u010ceska, Slovenska, Ma\u010farska, Rakouska, Bavorska a severn\u00ed It\u00e1lie. Tyto st\u00e1ty a regiony si jsou bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed i pragmaticko-politicky. Um\u00edm si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee takov\u00e1 konstelace by mohla p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm ekonomicky postupovat vp\u0159ed. Evropa si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit ztr\u00e1cet \u010das.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interview: Christian R\u00fchmkorf
Foto: Archiv David Havrlant, Ivana Barkov\u00e1
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00e1 ekonomika je pod st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm tlakem. Jedna krize st\u0159\u00edd\u00e1 druhou a p\u0159er\u016fst\u00e1 v krize energetick\u00e9. N\u011bmecko, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 ekonomika, stagnuje. Co bude d\u00e1l? Kter\u00e9 zem\u011b EU maj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance na r\u016fst? A existuje skute\u010dn\u011b \u201estar\u00e1\u201c a \u201enov\u00e1\u201c Evropa?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,310],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interviewrozhovor","category-quo-vaditis"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.0","language":"cz","enabled_languages":["de","cz"],"languages":{"de":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"cz":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true}}},"yoast_head":"\nZa n\u011bkolik let budou N\u011bmci pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b chodit za prac\u00ed do \u010ceska - 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