{"id":9495,"date":"2024-12-10T09:55:07","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T08:55:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emagazin.plus\/?p=9495"},"modified":"2025-02-05T11:50:46","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T10:50:46","slug":"tschechien-blickt-mit-sorge-auf-die-deutsche-konjunktur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emagazin.plus\/cz\/tschechien-blickt-mit-sorge-auf-die-deutsche-konjunktur\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cesko se d\u00edv\u00e1 na n\u011bmeckou ekonomiku s obavami"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Po slab\u00e9m roce 2024 by m\u011bl v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech r\u016fst \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky p\u0159evy\u0161ovat pr\u016fm\u011br EU. V pr\u016fmyslu p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gerit Schulze | Germany Trade & Invest<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hlavn\u00ed t\u00e9ma: m\u00edt velk\u00e9 c\u00edle a p\u0159ekonat tak krizi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010ceskou republiku \u010dekaj\u00ed na podzim 2025 parlamentn\u00ed volby a u\u017e nyn\u00ed vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed pochmurnou n\u00e1ladu. Podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch pr\u016fzkum\u016f vl\u00e1da premi\u00e9ra Fialy ztrat\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.
Koalice, kter\u00e1 se od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u0159\u00edjna 2024 skl\u00e1d\u00e1 pouze ze \u010dty\u0159 stran, se o to v\u00edce sna\u017e\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159it optimismus a dobrou n\u00e1ladu. Ministerstvo dopravy ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee urychl\u00ed v\u00fdstavbu infrastruktury. V roce 2025 za\u010dne v\u00fdstavba vysokorychlostn\u00ed \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed trati mezi Brnem a P\u0159erovem. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok bude tak\u00e9 zah\u00e1jena v\u00fdstavba 50 km d\u00e1lnic a bude zprovozn\u011bno dal\u0161\u00edch 50 km. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed d\u00e1lni\u010dn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 by m\u011bla b\u00fdt dokon\u010dena do roku 2033.
Nov\u00fd ministr pr\u016fmyslu a obchodu Luk\u00e1\u0161 Vl\u010dek hled\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l do budoucnosti. P\u0159edstavil ekonomickou strategii, kter\u00e1 si klade za c\u00edl do roku 2040 za\u0159adit \u010cesko mezi top 10 zem\u00ed EU s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm HDP na obyvatele. Cestou k tomu by m\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed investice do vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u00fdzkumu a infrastruktury. D\u00edky v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu polovodi\u010d\u016f a digit\u00e1ln\u00ed technologie by pr\u016fmysl m\u011bl vytv\u00e1\u0159et v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159idanou hodnotu.
Zda budou tato opat\u0159en\u00ed sta\u010dit k tomu, aby se \u010cesk\u00e1 republika p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eila ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edle z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy, se teprve uvid\u00ed. Premi\u00e9r Fiala prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee pokud bude zvolen na dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky, budou \u010desk\u00e9 platy na konci p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed na n\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u00farovni. Odborn\u00edci to ov\u0161em pova\u017euji za nere\u00e1ln\u00e9, proto\u017ee platy by musely ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b r\u016fst minim\u00e1ln\u011b o 25 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj: r\u016fst d\u00edky v\u00fddaj\u016fm vl\u00e1dy a spot\u0159ebitel\u016f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I p\u0159es pokles ekonomiky N\u011bmecka, nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho obchodn\u00edho partnera, dos\u00e1hla \u010cesk\u00e1 republika v roce 2024 alespo\u0148 n\u00edzk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu. Ministerstvo financ\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 podzimn\u00ed progn\u00f3ze po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s r\u016fstem HDP o 1,1 %. Od roku 2025 lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u010cR 2023\u20132025<\/strong>
Meziro\u010dn\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e1 zm\u011bna v %<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/th>2023<\/th>2024*)<\/strong><\/th>2025*)<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
HDP<\/td>-0,1<\/td>1,1<\/td>2,5<\/td><\/tr>
Saldo b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu (v % HDP)<\/td>0,3<\/td>1,4<\/td>0,0<\/td><\/tr>
Tvorba hrub\u00e9ho fixn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu<\/td>2,5<\/td>0,9<\/td>3,6<\/td><\/tr>
Spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed<\/td>-2,8<\/td>1,9<\/td>3,7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
*)<\/strong> progn\u00f3za

Zdroj: Ministerstvo financ\u00ed \u010cR (progn\u00f3za listopad 2024)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Maloobchodn\u00edci jsou pot\u011b\u0161eni rostouc\u00ed kupn\u00ed silou<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u016fst v roce 2024 podpo\u0159ila zejm\u00e9na tuzemsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka. Jednak rostla spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd (1. pololet\u00ed 2024: +4,5 %) se prom\u00edtlo do r\u016fstu maloobchodu. T\u011b\u017eili z toho zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdrobci kosmetiky a online prodejci, kte\u0159\u00ed v roce 2024 zaznamenali dvoucifern\u00fd r\u016fst. Tento trend bude pokra\u010dovat i v roce 2025, kdy by re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy op\u011bt m\u011bly vzr\u016fst o v\u00edce ne\u017e 4 %.
A jednak st\u00e1t investuje v\u00edce ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech. Rostou v\u00fddaje na d\u016fchody, obranu, vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed slu\u017eby. S pomoc\u00ed fond\u016f EU se zintenziv\u0148uje v\u00fdstavba infrastruktury. St\u00e1t tak\u00e9 mus\u00ed vynalo\u017eit nemal\u00e9 pen\u00edze na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1sledk\u016f z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00fdch povodn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobily \u0161kody ve v\u00fd\u0161i n\u011bkolika miliard eur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I p\u0159es vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fddaje kles\u00e1 rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I p\u0159es rostouc\u00ed v\u00fddaje m\u00e1 \u010cesk\u00e1 republika st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det pod kontrolou. D\u00edky konsolida\u010dn\u00edmu bal\u00ed\u010dku z roku 2024 by m\u011bl jeho schodek klesnout z 3,8 % HDP (2023) na 2,3 % (2025).
Inflace sm\u011b\u0159uje k c\u00edlov\u00e9mu koridoru 2 %. \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka tak mohla od \u00fanora do listopadu 2024 sedmkr\u00e1t za sebou sn\u00ed\u017eit z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu na 4 % (8. listopadu 2024). Odborn\u00edci o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.
T\u00edm se zlep\u0161uj\u00ed r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro investice. To je naprosto nutn\u00e9, nebo\u0165 tvorba hrub\u00e9ho fixn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu vzrostla v roce 2024 o m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 1 %. Z\u00e1soby se zmen\u0161ily, proto\u017ee firmy neo\u010dek\u00e1valy zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00edce optimismu u poskytovatel\u016f slu\u017eeb a ve stavebnictv\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e1lada se v\u0161ak zlep\u0161uje. Zejm\u00e9na v sektoru slu\u017eeb a ve stavebnictv\u00ed byly firmy v \u0159\u00edjnu 2024 ohledn\u011b budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem.
Ve zpracovatelsk\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 situace napjat\u00e1. V\u00fdvoj v pr\u016fmyslu negativn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje slab\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka, vysok\u00e9 mzdov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, drah\u00e9 energie a p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed nedostatek kvalifikovan\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f. Od ledna do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba meziro\u010dn\u011b poklesla, ve stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed a ocel\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o desetinu. Automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl stagnoval a prvn\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v \u010cesku zav\u00edraj\u00ed tov\u00e1rny. V \u0159\u00edjnu 2024 byla kapacita pr\u016fmyslu vyu\u017eita na 82 %, co\u017e je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159ebytek exportu postupn\u011b kles\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po autech, stroj\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edm exportn\u00edm zbo\u017e\u00ed je v sou\u010dasnosti slab\u00e1. V prvn\u00edch t\u0159ech \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch 2024 byl objem exportu na \u00farovni p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku. Na obdob\u00ed 2025-2027 ministerstvo financ\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 op\u011btovn\u00fd r\u016fst exportu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 3 %. Dovoz zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb d\u00edky dobr\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 n\u00e1lad\u011b by m\u011bl r\u016fst je\u0161t\u011b rychleji: v roce 2025 o 5,6 % a v roce 2026 o 4,7 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky (mld. eur)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/th>2019<\/th>2020<\/th>2021<\/th>2022<\/th>2023<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Import*<\/td>160,0<\/td>149,6<\/td>179,3<\/td>225,2<\/td>214,5<\/td><\/tr>
Export**<\/td>177,9<\/td>167,6<\/td>191,6<\/td>230,2<\/td>236,4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
* Cost, Insurance,Freight (cif); **Free on Board (fob)
Zdroj: Eurostat 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 perspektiva: konec recese na obzoru<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bmeck\u00fd v\u00fdvoz do \u010cR roste pomaleji ne\u017e v\u00fdvoz do ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy. Za prvn\u00ed t\u0159i \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2024 klesl objem dod\u00e1vek meziro\u010dn\u011b o 3,4 %.
Nov\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed projekty n\u011bmeck\u00fdch firem jsou sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9. V\u011bt\u0161ina projekt\u016f je omezena na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch kapacit. Podle pr\u016fzkumu AHK World Business Outlook z podzimu 2024 si ka\u017ed\u00e1 druh\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 firma v \u010cesku st\u011b\u017euje na slabou popt\u00e1vku. Firmy se nav\u00edc pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s rostouc\u00edmi mzdov\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady, nedostatkem kvalifikovan\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f a vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na energie.
Od roku 2025 by m\u011blo doj\u00edt k o\u017eiven\u00ed ekonomiky. P\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti pro n\u011bmeck\u00e9 produkty by mohl p\u0159in\u00e9st o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst dovozu a velk\u00e9 infrastrukturn\u00ed projekty v \u010cR. Pozitivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj sv\u00e9 \u010dinnosti v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvan\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00e1 druh\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 firma v \u010cR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod s N\u011bmeckem (mld. eur)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/th>2019<\/th>2020<\/th>2021<\/th>2022<\/th>2023<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Dovoz z N\u011bmecka*<\/td>44,5<\/td>39,6<\/td>47,3<\/td>55,8<\/td>52,9<\/td><\/tr>
V\u00fdvoz do N\u011bmecka**<\/td>47,7<\/td>43,8<\/td>49,7<\/td>59,2<\/td>60,6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
* Free on Board (fob), **Cost, Insurance,Freight (cif);
Zdroj: Destatis 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po slab\u00e9m roce 2024 by m\u011bl v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech r\u016fst \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky p\u0159evy\u0161ovat pr\u016fm\u011br EU. V pr\u016fmyslu p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my.
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